PICMET @ Newsletter   
                January, 2004, Vol.1 Number 1
                 

                                                              
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Technology  Foresight :An opportunity for finding leverage points in developing countries
By Guillermo Grueda

A country is a complex system constitutes by a set of elements connected by multiple and non-linear relationships. Technology foresight, commonly defined as a systematic process to identify critical technologies [UNIDO, 1999] [Foren, 2001] that will allow countries to growth consistently and reach the aims goals, has been growing in importance during the last two decades. 

Technology Foresight (TF) has been used to identify critical technologies that may be considered as leverage points of countries as a whole system.

 In recent years, many countries have developed foresight exercises to identify scientific and technology opportunities in the medium and long-term vision [Foren, 2001]. 

Japan started leading the process in the 70’s, undertaking the Japanese Technology Forecast Delphi as the first effort. The process had surveyed more than 30-year time, covering 644 topics and using nearly 2,500 participants [Kuwahara, T, 1999]. The exercise has been repeated every five years, covering in the last exercise (2003) more than 1,000 of topics with over 4,000 of participants.

 Very soon other countries like Korea, Thailand, Germany, Australia, Austria, France, Holland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Spain, New Zealand, Sweden, U.S. and U.K. among the principal started experienced similar activities.

 In the case of Latin American an important initiative came from UNIDO, part of the United Nations (UN) since 1985, in cooperation with the International Centre for Science and High Technology (ICS). They came forward in Trieste, Italy (1999) with a proposal known as the Technology Foresight Initiative for Latin America and the Caribbean (TFI LAC) which main purpose was to promote industrialization in group of the following Latin American and Caribbean countries:

 

Latin American countries involved in the UNIDO/ICS’s TF Initiative

Argentina

Guatemala

Brazil

Panama

Uruguay

Peru

Venezuela

Costa Rica

Mexico

El Salvador

Bolivia

Paraguay

Chile

Ecuador

Colombia

Cuba

 At present stage described in [http://www.unido.org/doc/4219] countries like Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela and Uruguay had completed the preparation stage of the process, including plans of actions, schedules, and national inventories. However, countries like Colombia, Mexico, Bolivia, and Chile had just finished their foresight inventories and are developing their plans of actions in order to start the preparation stage.

 Several IT tools are used to facilitate the data gathering in the TF LAC process. They are using First Class groupware as Intranet communication tool and using specialized software for Delphi’s experiences named: Strategylet (online software for strategic planning and foresight analysis), and Surveylet (on-line software for brainstorming and SWOT analysis).

 To verify if these initiatives have produced positive consequences and contrast them with the initial objectives is very premature due to main processes are still in early stages. Also, previous experiences had been demonstrated that time-delays are always embedded in technology foresight process [NISTEP, Report No. 66]. UNIDO Annual’s Reports from years 2001 and 2002 highlighted some main contributions for Latin American and the Caribbean countries. However, it is not clear if they are effects from independent and/or previous projects or they came from UNIDO/ICS TF LAC’s initiative [Annual Report of UNIDO, 2002, pp. 38-40] [Annual Report of UNIDO, 2001, pp. 38-39].

 Finally what is true is that the art of identify “critical technologies” as leverage points may produce important changes for developing countries improving per-se social and economical conditions. The ability for developing countries to concentrate their efforts and knowledge, tacit and explicit, may redefine economies in the medium and long-term. A good example is expressed in the case of India -a country with more than 400 million people living with less than US$1 per day, and 36% of the poor people in the world- leading the world’s software industry.

To contact author please send e-mail to grueda@pdx.edu


  

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