| By
Guillermo Grueda
A
country is a complex system constitutes by a set of elements
connected by multiple and non-linear relationships. Technology
foresight, commonly defined as a systematic process to identify
critical technologies [UNIDO, 1999] [Foren, 2001] that will allow countries to growth consistently and reach
the aims goals, has been growing in importance during the last two
decades.
Technology Foresight (TF) has been used to identify critical
technologies that may be considered as leverage points of
countries as a whole system.
In
recent years, many countries have developed foresight exercises to
identify scientific and technology opportunities in the medium and
long-term vision [Foren,
2001].
Japan
started leading the process in the 70’s, undertaking the Japanese
Technology Forecast Delphi as the first effort. The process had
surveyed more than 30-year time, covering 644 topics and using
nearly 2,500 participants [Kuwahara,
T, 1999]. The exercise has been repeated every five years,
covering in the last exercise (2003) more than 1,000 of topics with
over 4,000 of participants.
Very
soon other countries like Korea, Thailand, Germany, Australia,
Austria, France, Holland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Spain, New
Zealand, Sweden, U.S. and U.K. among the principal started
experienced similar activities.
In
the case of Latin American an important initiative came from UNIDO,
part of the United Nations (UN) since 1985, in cooperation with the
International Centre for Science and High Technology (ICS). They
came forward in Trieste, Italy (1999) with a proposal known as the Technology
Foresight Initiative for Latin America and the Caribbean (TFI LAC)
which main purpose was to promote industrialization in group of the
following Latin American and Caribbean countries:
Latin
American countries involved in the UNIDO/ICS’s TF
Initiative
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Argentina
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Guatemala
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Brazil
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Panama
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Uruguay
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Peru
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Venezuela
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Costa
Rica
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Mexico
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El
Salvador
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Bolivia
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Paraguay
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Chile
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Ecuador
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Colombia
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Cuba
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At
present stage described in [http://www.unido.org/doc/4219]
countries like Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela and Uruguay had
completed the preparation stage of the process, including plans of
actions, schedules, and national inventories. However, countries
like Colombia, Mexico, Bolivia, and Chile had just finished their
foresight inventories and are developing their plans of actions in
order to start the preparation stage.
Several
IT tools are used to facilitate the data gathering in the TF LAC
process. They are using First Class groupware as Intranet
communication tool and using specialized software for Delphi’s
experiences named: Strategylet (online software for strategic planning and foresight
analysis), and Surveylet (on-line
software for brainstorming and SWOT analysis).
To
verify if these initiatives have produced positive consequences and
contrast them with the initial objectives is very premature due to
main processes are still in early stages. Also, previous experiences
had been demonstrated that time-delays are always embedded in
technology foresight process [NISTEP, Report No. 66]. UNIDO Annual’s Reports from years 2001
and 2002 highlighted some main contributions for Latin American and
the Caribbean countries. However, it is not clear if they are
effects from independent and/or previous projects or they came from
UNIDO/ICS TF LAC’s initiative [Annual
Report of UNIDO, 2002, pp. 38-40] [Annual Report of UNIDO, 2001, pp.
38-39].
Finally
what is true is that the art of identify “critical technologies”
as leverage points may produce important changes for developing
countries improving per-se social and economical conditions. The
ability for developing countries to concentrate their efforts and
knowledge, tacit and explicit,
may redefine economies in the medium and long-term. A good example
is expressed in the case of India -a country with more than 400
million people living with less than US$1 per day, and 36% of the
poor people in the world- leading the world’s software
industry.
To contact author please send
e-mail to grueda@pdx.edu
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