A country is a complex system consisting of a set of elements connected by multiple and non-linear relationships. Technology foresight, commonly defined as a systematic process to identify critical technologies [1] [2] that will allow countries to develop consistently and reach their goals, has been growing in importance during the last two decades.

 Technology foresight (TF) has been used to identify critical technologies that may be considered as leverage points of countries as a whole system. In recent years, many countries have developed foresight exercises to identify scientific and technology opportunities for medium and long-term goals [2].

Japan led the process in the ‘70s, undertaking the Japanese Technology Forecast Delphi as its first effort, which surveyed a more than 30-year time span, covering 644 topics and using nearly 2,500 participants [3]. The exercise has been repeated every five years, and in the last exercise (2003) it covered more than 1,000 topics with over 4,000 participants.

Soon other countries like Korea, Thailand, Germany, Australia, Austria, France, Holland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Spain, New Zealand, Sweden, U.S. and the U.K. started similar activities.

 In the case of Latin America, an important initiative came from UNIDO, part of the United Nations (UN) since 1985, in cooperation with the International Centre for Science and High Technology (ICS).  In Trieste, Italy (1999) UNIDO came forward with a proposal known as the Technology Foresight Initiative for Latin America and the Caribbean (TFI LAC), the main purpose of which was to promote industrialization in the following group of Latin American and Caribbean countries:  

At the present stage, as described in [http://www.unido.org/doc/4219], countries like Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela and Uruguay have completed the preparation stage of the process, including plans of actions, schedules, and national inventories. However, countries like Colombia, Mexico, Bolivia, and Chile have just finished their foresight inventories and are developing their plans of actions in order to start the preparation stage.

Several IT tools are used to facilitate data gathering in the TFI LAC process. They are using First Class groupware as an Intranet communication tool and specialized software for Delphi’s experiences called Strategylet (online software for strategic planning and foresight analysis) and Surveylet (on-line software for brainstorming and SWOT analysis).

 Verifying if these initiatives have produced positive results and contrasting them with the initial objectives is very premature because the main processes are still in the early stages. Also, previous experience has demonstrated that time delays are always embedded in the technology foresight process [4]. UNIDO’s Annual Reports from 2001 and 2002 highlighted some of the main contributions for Latin American and Caribbean countries. However, it is not clear if they are effects from independent and/or previous projects or if they came from UNIDO/ICS TFI LAC’s initiative [5] [6].

 Finally, what is true is that the art of identifying “critical technologies” as leverage points may produce important changes for developing countries, improving social and economical conditions. The ability for developing countries to concentrate their efforts and knowledge, tacit and explicit, may redefine economies in the medium and long term. A good example is expressed in the case of India—a country with more than 400 million people living on less than US $1 per day and containing 36 percent of the poor people in the world—which leads the world’s software industry.  

References:

[1] Technology Foresight: A UNIDO/ICS Initiative for Latin America and the Caribbean. Workshop Proceedings. 1999. 

[2] Foresight for Regional Development Network (FOREN). A Practical Guide to Regional Foresight. European Commission Research Directorate General, STRATA Program. 2001. 

[3] Kuwahara, T. (1999). "Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 60(1): 5-14. 

[4] NISTEP, Report No. 52. The Sixth technology Forecast Survey - Future Technology in Japan Toward the Year 2025. 1997. For more information visit http://www.nistep.go.jp/index-e.html. 

[5] Annual Report of UNIDO, 2002, pp. 38-40. For details visit http://www.unido.org/file-storage/download/?file%5fid=11100                    

[6] Annual Report of UNIDO, 2001, pp. 38-39. For details visit http://www.unido.org/userfiles/timminsk/Annual_Report_2001_Eng.pdf

 To contact author please send e-mail to grueda@pdx.edu

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